The UEFA Nations League semi-final on June 4, 2025, promises a thrilling clash as Germany hosts Portugal at the iconic Allianz Arena in Munich. This high-stakes encounter pits two European football powerhouses against each other, with Germany aiming to leverage their home advantage and Portugal looking to capitalize on their attacking prowess.
Under the guidance of Julian Nagelsmann, Germany has shown a renewed sense of purpose, while Portugal, led by Roberto Martinez and veteran star Cristiano Ronaldo, remains a formidable force. With a place in the Nations League final on the line, this match is set to deliver intense competition and moments of brilliance.
Prediction
Germany enters this semi-final as slight favorites, bolstered by their unbeaten run in the Nations League group stage and a passionate home crowd. Julian Nagelsmann’s side has embraced a high-tempo, attacking style, with young stars like Florian Wirtz driving their creativity. Despite a quarter-final exit at EURO 2024, Germany’s 5-4 aggregate win over Italy in the Nations League quarter-finals showcased their resilience and scoring ability, netting 13 goals in their last four matches. Portugal, however, is no pushover.
Their 5-2 extra-time victory over Denmark in the quarter-finals highlighted their depth and firepower, with players like Diogo Jota and Rafael Leão in fine form. Yet, Portugal’s inconsistent away record and occasional defensive lapses could be exploited by Germany’s dynamic forwards. The match is likely to be close, with both teams finding the net due to their attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. A narrow 3-2 victory for Germany is a plausible outcome, with the hosts’ home dominance and tactical structure under Nagelsmann giving them the edge.
Head-to-head
Germany holds a strong historical advantage over Portugal, winning five of their last six encounters, with Portugal’s sole victory coming 25 years ago. Their most recent clash at EURO 2020 saw Germany triumph 4-2 at the Allianz Arena, a venue where Portugal has struggled.
Across these six matches, an average of 3.83 goals per game underscores the high-scoring nature of this fixture. Germany’s current 10-match unbeaten streak against Portugal at home further tilts the scales in their favor. While Portugal’s attacking depth makes them dangerous, their inability to beat Germany in recent decades suggests a psychological hurdle they must overcome in Munich.
Possible lineups
Germany is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation under Nagelsmann, despite injury concerns. With Jamal Musiala, Antonio Rüdiger, and others sidelined, Marc-André ter Stegen is likely to start in goal, protected by a backline of Joshua Kimmich, Jonathan Tah, Waldemar Anton, and Maximilian Mittelstädt. The midfield duo of Pascal Groß and Leon Goretzka will provide stability, while Leroy Sané, Florian Wirtz, and Serge Gnabry support striker Deniz Undav.
Portugal is also likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1, with Diogo Costa in goal and a defense of Diogo Dalot, Rúben Dias, António Silva, and Nuno Mendes. The midfield trio of João Neves, Vitinha, and Bernardo Silva will feed Bruno Fernandes, who operates behind Cristiano Ronaldo, with Diogo Jota and Rafael Leão on the flanks. Portugal’s bench, including João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos, adds significant depth.
Betting tips
For bettors, this match offers several promising betting opportunities. Germany to win at odds of 1.89 on PariPesa is a solid choice, given their home form and historical dominance over Portugal. The “Both Teams to Score” market at 1.63 is appealing, as both sides have been prolific, with Germany conceding in nine of their last 14 matches and Portugal scoring in all but two of their recent games.
The Over 2.5 Goals market is another strong option, with 75% of Germany’s Nations League matches and Portugal’s recent away games exceeding this threshold. For a riskier bet, a correct score of 3-2 to Germany at +650 offers value, reflecting the likelihood of a high-scoring, tightly contested match. Kenyan bettors can also consider a Bet Builder combining Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals, and Kai Havertz to score anytime, leveraging his recent form.