Real Madrid face Mallorca in a crucial La Liga clash on May 14, 2025, at the Santiago Bernabéu, kicking off at 9:30 pm local time. With the Spanish title race heating up, Real Madrid are under pressure to secure three points against a resilient Mallorca side. Los Blancos are grappling with a defensive injury crisis, while Mallorca aim to capitalize on their disciplined setup to pull off an upset. This match promises intensity, with both teams bringing distinct strengths to the pitch. Drawing on recent form, historical data, and expert insights, this article breaks down the prediction, head-to-head record, possible lineups, and betting tips for this intriguing encounter.
Prediction
Real Madrid are favored to win, but Mallorca’s defensive solidity could make this a closer contest than expected. Despite their injury woes, Real Madrid’s attacking firepower, led by Kylian Mbappé, should prove decisive at home. Mallorca have struggled for goals on the road, scoring just 14 away goals in recent matches, while Real Madrid have netted 41 at the Bernabéu.
However, Mallorca’s recent form, with a compact 5-4-1 formation, suggests they can frustrate opponents. The match is likely to see under 3.5 goals, given Mallorca’s low-scoring away games and Real Madrid’s depleted defense potentially limiting their usual fluidity. A 2-0 victory for Real Madrid feels plausible, balancing their offensive edge with Mallorca’s stubborn resistance.
Head-to-head
Real Madrid hold a commanding historical advantage over Mallorca, winning 45 of their 74 meetings across all competitions, compared to Mallorca’s 16 victories. In La Liga, Real Madrid have been particularly dominant, securing 26 wins in the last 44 encounters. At the Bernabéu, Mallorca’s last league win came in 2009, highlighting the uphill battle they face.
Recent clashes further tilt the scales, with Real Madrid winning seven of the last ten matches, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent meeting in January 2024. Mallorca’s two wins in this span came in 2019 and 2022, both by narrow margins, underscoring their ability to occasionally stun the giants. Real Madrid’s superior head-to-head record and home dominance make them the clear favorites.
Possible lineups
Real Madrid’s lineup is heavily impacted by injuries, with key defenders Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, and David Alaba sidelined. Thibaut Courtois is expected to start in goal, with a makeshift backline featuring Jesús Vallejo, youth prospect Asencio, Fran García, and possibly Loren or David Jiménez. In midfield, Federico Valverde, Luka Modrić, and Dani Ceballos are likely to provide stability, while Arda Güler and Jude Bellingham support Kylian Mbappé and Endrick up top.
Mallorca, under Javier Aguirre, are expected to deploy a 5-4-1 formation. Dominik Greif should start in goal, protected by a back five of Pablo Maffeo, Martin Valjent, Antonio Raíllo, Copete, and Johan Mojica. The midfield quartet of Antonio Sánchez, Omar Mascarell, Samuel Costa, and Sergi Darder will aim to disrupt, with Vedat Muriqi leading the line as the lone striker.
Betting tips
Bookmakers heavily favor Real Madrid, with odds as low as 1.35 for a home win, implying a 75% chance of victory, while Mallorca’s odds stand at 8.5 for an upset. Given Real Madrid’s injury-hit defense and Mallorca’s defensive approach, betting on under 3.5 goals at around 1.80 offers value, especially as Real Madrid’s last three games have been high-scoring but Mallorca’s away matches tend to be cagey.
Kylian Mbappé to score first is another strong option at 11/4, given his form and central role in Real Madrid’s attack. For a riskier punt, a 2-0 correct score bet at approximately 6.00 aligns with the predicted outcome. Mallorca’s low away goal tally and Real Madrid’s home strength make these markets appealing for cautious bettors.