Newcastle United and Chelsea face off at St James’ Park on Sunday, May 11, 2025, in a crucial Premier League clash with both teams vying for Champions League qualification. The Magpies, buoyed by their passionate home support, aim to continue their strong record against Chelsea at home, while the Blues look to maintain their unbeaten run in the league and solidify their top-four aspirations. With both sides coming off mixed results, this match promises to be a tightly contested battle, featuring key players like Newcastle’s Alexander Isak and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer.
Prediction
Newcastle are slight favorites to edge out Chelsea in a high-scoring affair, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. The Magpies have been formidable at St James’ Park, winning their last three home games against Chelsea across all competitions, including a 2-0 EFL Cup victory earlier this season. Alexander Isak’s scoring prowess against Chelsea—he has netted in each of his last four games against them—gives Newcastle a potent attacking threat.
Chelsea, however, are in fine form, unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches, though they’ve dropped points in draws against teams like Ipswich Town. Despite Chelsea’s attacking depth, Newcastle’s home advantage and tactical adjustments, particularly in midfield with Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães, could tip the scales in their favor. Expect both teams to score, given Chelsea’s leaky defense and Newcastle’s chance creation, but the Magpies’ home fortress should secure them the three points.
Head-to-head
Historically, Chelsea have dominated this fixture, winning 80 of 176 matches across all competitions compared to Newcastle’s 56 victories. In recent years, the Blues have held a slight edge, securing three wins in their last five competitive meetings, though Newcastle claimed a 2-0 win in the EFL Cup in October 2024. At St James’ Park, however, Newcastle have turned the tables, winning their last three home games against Chelsea, including a 4-1 Premier League triumph last season.
The last five meetings between these sides have produced 17 goals, averaging 3.4 goals per game, indicating a trend of action-packed encounters. Chelsea’s last victory at St James’ Park came in 2021, and their struggles in away league games this season—winning just four outside London—suggest Newcastle’s home record could again prove decisive.
Possible lineups
Newcastle are grappling with injuries, with Lewis Hall, Matt Targett, Jamaal Lascelles, and Joelinton ruled out, while Anthony Gordon’s fitness remains uncertain due to a groin issue. Eddie Howe is likely to stick with his trusted 4-3-3 formation, with Nick Pope in goal, protected by a backline of Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn, and Valentino Livramento. In midfield, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães, and Joe Willock are expected to provide energy and control, while Harvey Barnes, Alexander Isak, and either Jacob Murphy or Miguel Almirón lead the attack.
Chelsea, meanwhile, will miss Wesley Fofana, Omari Kellyman, Christopher Nkunku, Aaron Anselmino, and Mykhailo Mudryk due to injuries. Enzo Maresca is expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1, with Robert Sanchez in goal, a defense of Marc Cucurella, Trevoh Chalobah, Levi Colwill, and Malo Gusto, and a midfield pivot of Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández. Cole Palmer will operate as the attacking midfielder, supported by Noni Madueke and Pedro Neto, with Nicolas Jackson up top.
Betting tips
For bettors, Newcastle’s home form makes them a compelling pick at 6/4 odds for a victory, especially given Chelsea’s inconsistent away record. Alexander Isak to score anytime is a strong bet at 15/8, considering his scoring streak against Chelsea. Both teams to score is another solid option at 1.47 odds, as neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five head-to-head meetings, and Chelsea’s games have frequently seen goals at both ends.
For those seeking higher returns, a 2-1 correct scoreline in Newcastle’s favor offers value at around 8/1, aligning with their home scoring average of 2.24 goals per game and Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities. Over 2.5 goals is also worth considering at 1.92 odds, given the high-scoring nature of recent encounters between these teams.