The Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, also known as San Siro, braces for a seismic clash on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, as Inter Milan host FC Barcelona in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final. The first leg at Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys ended in a pulsating 3-3 draw, setting the stage for a thrilling decider with a place in the final against either Arsenal or Paris Saint-Germain at stake. Both teams, European heavyweights with a combined eight Champions League titles, are desperate to add to their storied legacies. Inter, chasing their fourth continental crown, face a Barcelona side eyeing their sixth, fueled by a potent attack and dreams of a quadruple under Hansi Flick.
Prediction
Barcelona enter the San Siro as slight favorites, with their attacking prowess giving them an edge despite Inter’s formidable home record. The Blaugrana’s high-octane offense, led by Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, overwhelmed Inter at times in the first leg, amassing 19 shots to Inter’s seven and controlling over 70% possession. However, Inter’s counter-attacking threat, exemplified by Marcus Thuram’s record-breaking 30-second goal and Denzel Dumfries’ brace, exposed Barcelona’s vulnerability to quick transitions and set pieces.
Inter’s recent form is shaky, with just one win in their last six games across all competitions, including a 1-0 victory over Verona that ended a five-game winless streak. Barcelona, meanwhile, boast 23 wins in their last 30 competitive matches and a 2-1 comeback win over Real Valladolid to maintain their La Liga lead. Despite Inter’s unbeaten home record in the Champions League this season, Barcelona’s attacking depth and Inter’s injury concerns—particularly the potential absence of Lautaro Martinez—tilt the scales. Expect a tight contest, but Barcelona’s firepower should secure a narrow 2-1 victory, advancing 5-4 on aggregate.
Head-to-head
The rivalry between Inter Milan and FC Barcelona is one of the most storied in European football, with this match marking their 18th continental meeting, the fourth-most played fixture in UEFA competitions. Barcelona hold the historical edge, winning eight of the previous 17 encounters, with Inter securing three victories and five draws. The goal difference favors Barcelona at 25-13. Their most significant clash came in the 2009-10 Champions League semi-finals, where Jose Mourinho’s Inter triumphed 3-2 on aggregate, en route to the title.
More recently, the 2022-23 group stage saw Inter win 1-0 at home and draw 3-3 in Barcelona. Inter are unbeaten in their last three matches against Barcelona, but the Blaugrana remain unbeaten in six home games against Inter in the Champions League. At the San Siro, Inter have won twice, drawn three times, and lost once in six meetings, with a slight 6-4 goal advantage. This history suggests a closely fought battle, with both sides capable of exploiting the other’s weaknesses.
Possible lineups
Inter Milan’s Simone Inzaghi faces injury headaches that could shape their approach. Lautaro Martinez, substituted at halftime in the first leg with a thigh issue, is doubtful, and Benjamin Pavard’s ankle sprain rules him out. Marcus Thuram, recently back from injury, is expected to lead the line alongside Mehdi Taremi if Martinez is unavailable. The Nerazzurri are likely to stick with their 3-5-2 formation, with Yann Sommer in goal, a back three of Yann Bisseck, Francesco Acerbi, and Alessandro Bastoni, and wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco providing width. The midfield trio of Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan will aim to control the tempo and disrupt Barcelona’s rhythm.
Barcelona’s Hansi Flick welcomes back Robert Lewandowski, who has recovered from a hamstring injury and could start after being spotted in training. However, Jules Kounde’s hamstring strain and Alejandro Balde’s ongoing recovery mean Eric Garcia or Ronald Araujo will likely deputize at right-back, with Gerard Martin or Hector Fort at left-back. The Blaugrana are expected to deploy their 4-2-3-1, with Wojciech Szczesny confirmed as the starting goalkeeper over Marc-Andre ter Stegen. The backline will feature Pau Cubarsi and Inigo Martinez centrally, with Frenkie de Jong and Pedri anchoring midfield. The attacking quartet of Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha, and either Lewandowski or Ferran Torres will look to exploit Inter’s defensive frailties.
Betting tips
For bettors, this match offers several intriguing markets given the attacking talent on display and defensive vulnerabilities exposed in the first leg. A popular choice is Barcelona to win at odds of around 2.20, reflecting their superior form and attacking depth, though Inter’s home resilience makes this a value bet rather than a certainty. The over 2.5 goals market, priced at approximately 1.70, is appealing, as nine of Barcelona’s 12 Champions League games this season have featured at least three goals, and the first leg’s six-goal thriller suggests more fireworks.
Both teams to score (BTTS) at 1.65 is another strong option, given Inter’s scoring in 12 of their last 15 away games and Barcelona’s concession in eight of their 12 Champions League matches. For player-specific bets, Raphinha to score anytime at 2.65 is tempting, as the Brazilian has 12 Champions League goals this season, including five away from home. Similarly, Lamine Yamal to have over 2.5 shots at 1.80 is backed by his season-high 188 shot attempts across all competitions. On the Inter side, Marcus Thuram to have 1+ shots at 1.50 is a safer bet, given his active role in the first leg. Finally, over 3.5 corners for Barcelona at 1.90 is worth considering, as they averaged five corners in the first leg and face an Inter side conceding 4.9 corners per game.