This Wednesday, the iconic Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam sets the stage for a crucial UEFA Champions League encounter. Ajax hosts Greek champions Olympiacos in what is effectively a knockout match for the final round of the league phase.
The kick-off is scheduled for 20:00 local time on January 28, 2026.
For Ajax, this match is a final, desperate attempt to keep their European hopes flickering. Despite a catastrophic start to their campaign with five consecutive defeats, back-to-back victories over Qarabag and Villarreal have provided a late lifeline.
Currently sitting in 32nd position in the Champions League table with 6 points, a win is non-negotiable, but their fate also depends on other results going their way.
Olympiacos, positioned 24th with 8 points, occupies the final play-off spot. A draw would likely see them advance, while a victory would secure their place in the next round. Their confidence is buoyed by a 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen in their last European outing.
Head-to-Head history
The historical record between these two historic clubs is remarkably even, though their encounters have been sporadic. According to UEFA’s official statistics, in all European competition, Ajax and Olympiacos have faced each other six times.
Overall record: 2 wins for Ajax, 2 wins for Olympiacos, and 2 draws.
Goals scored: A close tally, with Olympiacos scoring 3 and Ajax scoring 2 in their UEFA-measured clashes.
Home dominance: A clear trend emerges: all four victories in this fixture have been secured by the home team. Olympiacos has never won at Ajax’s ground, where the Dutch side holds a 2-0-1 (W-D-L) advantage.
Recent meeting: The most recent clash was a pre-season friendly in July 2024, which Ajax won 1-0.
Team news and predicted lineups
Both squads have minimal injury concerns heading into this decisive fixture, allowing managers to field close to their strongest XIs.
Ajax
Absentees: The primary absentee is experienced winger Steven Berghuis, who is recovering from a groin injury. Midfielder James McConnell is also listed as unavailable.
Formation: Likely to deploy a 4-3-3 or similar attacking formation.
Key player: The creative burden will fall on Oscar Gloukh. The young Israeli midfielder has three Champions League goals this season and is the team’s creative heartbeat. With 4 goals in his last 10 games, he is Ajax’s top scorer in this period.
Predicted starting XI (4-3-3): Jaros (GK); Gaaei, Bouwman, Baas, Wijndal; Mokio, Regeer, Klaassen; Gloukh, Dolberg, Godts.
Olympiacos
Absentees: The visitors will be without their first-choice goalkeeper Alexandros Paschalakis, who is sidelined through injury. This forces Konstantinos Tzolakis into the starting role.
Formation: Expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, looking to be compact and strike on the break.
Key player: The attacking threat will center on striker Ayoub El Kaabi. He is in good form, having scored the winning goal in their last league match, and is a joint-top scorer for Olympiacos with 6 goals in their last 10 outings.
Predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Tzolakis (GK); Costinha, Retsos, Pirola, Ortega; Hezze, Mouzakitis; Martins, Chiquinho, Rodinei; El Kaabi.
Pre-match analysis and prediction
This is a classic clash of momentum versus historical weakness. Ajax enters with the wind in their sails, having lost just once in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Their home form is particularly strong, with a five-game unbeaten run at the Johan Cruijff Arena.
Conversely, Olympiacos’s primary vulnerability is their European away record. They have managed just one win in their last 13 UEFA Champions League away trips. However, that solitary victory did come recently against Kairat, and their overall form is solid, with three wins in their last four matches without conceding a goal.
The contrasting styles will be fascinating. Ajax, needing a win, will look to control possession and apply pressure. Olympiacos, aware that a point could suffice, may be content to absorb pressure and exploit spaces on the counter-attack.
Betting tips and odds
Bookmakers view this as an extremely tight contest. Odds, as provided by Ladbrokes, reflect this tension:
Olympiacos to win: 7/5 (2.40) – 41.7% probability
Draw: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6% probability
Ajax to win: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.4% probability
Several betting markets are popular for this fixture:
1. Match result – Draw: The high-stakes nature and Olympiacos’s potential game plan make the draw a distinct possibility. Historical data also shows two draws in six competitive meetings.
2. Total goals – Under 2.5: Both teams have been involved in low-scoring European games recently. Ajax’s last five UCL matches have seen under 2.5 goals, and a tense, tactical battle is expected.
3. Both teams to score – No: Olympiacos have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches, while Ajax’s desperation could leave them vulnerable at the back. A 1-0 scoreline is a frequently predicted outcome.
4. Player prop – Kasper Dolberg Over 0.5 shots on target: The Ajax striker has registered at least one shot on target in three consecutive home matches, making this a promising pick.
Final score prediction
While Olympiacos holds a slight edge in the table and the odds, Ajax’s formidable home record in this specific fixture and their recent resurgence under Fred Grim could prove decisive.
Predicted final score: Ajax 1 – 0 Olympiacos
The expectation is for a closely fought, tense match where a single moment of quality from a player like Oscar Gloukh could make the difference.
Ajax’s need for victory and home support should give them the edge to secure a narrow win, though it may ultimately not be enough to secure a playoff spot without help from elsewhere.