A critical European night awaits at Anfield as Liverpool prepare to face Qarabag FK in the final match of this season’s Champions League league phase.
With automatic qualification for the prestigious last 16 hanging in the balance, the Reds are under immense pressure to secure a victory and avoid a precarious playoff round.
Manager Arne Slot’s squad faces this decisive test amid a deepening injury crisis that has left the team’s defensive line perilously thin.
Meanwhile, their Azerbaijani opponents, Qarabag, have emerged as one of the surprise packages of the competition and arrive with ambitions of their own, seeking a result that could seal their place in the knockout stage playoffs.
Match details and stakes
The fixture is scheduled for an 8 p.m. GMT kickoff on Wednesday, January 28, at Anfield. For Liverpool, the equation is simple: a win guarantees a top-eight finish and direct passage to the round of 16, allowing them to bypass a tricky two-legged playoff next month.
However, the stakes are nuanced. Finishing in the top four, a very real possibility with a win, would also secure the advantageous second-leg-at-home status for both the last 16 and any potential quarter-final.
A draw leaves Liverpool’s fate dependent on other results, while a defeat would see them nervously awaiting outcomes across Europe, with a significant risk of dropping into the playoff round.
Qarabag, sitting 18th in the overall standings with 10 points, are also fighting for their continental future. A victory or a draw at Anfield would see them through to the playoff round, capping a remarkable campaign that has included impressive wins over Benfica and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Historically, English grounds have been unkind to the, they remain winless in eight previous encounters with Premier League opposition, but this resilient side has repeatedly defied expectations this season.
Team news
Liverpool’s preparation has been dominated by a severe shortage of available centre-backs. The situation worsened during the weekend’s Premier League defeat at Bournemouth, where Joe Gomez was injured in a collision with goalkeeper Alisson and has been ruled out.
He joins Ibrahima Konaté, who is unavailable due to a family bereavement, and the season-long absentee Giovanni Leoni on the sidelines.
This leaves manager Arne Slot with a major selection headache. Captain Virgil van Dijk is the only fit senior specialist centre-back available. The most likely solution is to deploy defensive midfielder Wataru Endo as an emergency partner to van Dijk at the heart of the defence.
Academy defender Amara Nallo has been called up to the squad and is expected to be on the bench.
There is a sliver of positive news in attack, with Federico Chiesa back in contention after missing the last two games with a knock. Key long-term absentees remain, however, including striker Alexander Isak (broken leg) and right-back Conor Bradley (season-ending knee surgery).
In contrast, Qarabag are close to full strength. Manager Qurban Qurbanov made sweeping changes for a domestic league defeat at the weekend, meaning his preferred starting XI should be well-rested. Their only significant absentee is Brazilian forward Kady Borges.
Predicted lineups
Given the defensive constraints, Liverpool are expected to field a makeshift backline. Most predictions point to a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-2-2-2 formation.
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Frimpong, Endo, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Ekitiké.
Qarabag (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Jafarquliyev; Bicalho, Janković; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Durán.
The key battle will be in Liverpool’s defensive third, where the unfamiliar partnership of van Dijk and Endo must contain Qarabag’s potent attack, led by Colombian forward Camilo Durán.
Durán has been instrumental in their European run, contributing four goals and an assist.
Match prediction and betting perspective
This match presents a classic clash of contexts. Liverpool possess superior individual quality and the formidable atmosphere of Anfield, where they have won 17 of their last 20 group/league stage matches in the Champions League.
However, they are plagued by glaring defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent domestic form.
Qarabag, on the other hand, have built their campaign on fearlessness and opportunism. They have scored in six of their seven Champions League matches and have proven they can hurt established opponents.
Their game plan will likely involve staying organized and exploiting transitions and set-pieces against Liverpool’s patched-up defence.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Qarabag
The expectation is that Liverpool’s firepower, led by Mohamed Salah and the creativity of Dominik Szoboszlai, will ultimately see them through in a tense affair. However, Qarabag’s attacking record and Liverpool’s defensive woes suggest the visitors are more than capable of finding the net.
From a betting perspective, the following markets appear plausible based on the teams’ styles and situations:
Both teams to score (yes): Given Liverpool’s defensive crisis and Qarabag’s consistent goal-scoring in Europe, both teams finding the net is a strong possibility.
Match result & both teams to score (Liverpool & yes): This combines the likely Liverpool win with the expectation that their defence will concede.
Total goals (Over 2.5): Recent matches involving both sides have tended to be high-scoring, and the high stakes could lead to an open game.
How to watch
Fans in the United Kingdom can watch the match live on TNT Sports 2, with streaming available via discovery+. In the United States, coverage will be on Paramount+ and ViX.
As the Champions League league phase reaches its climax, Anfield is set for a night of high drama.
Liverpool must navigate a personnel crisis to control their own destiny, while Qarabag will look to write another unforgettable chapter in their remarkable European story.