The Spanish La Liga kicks off its 2025/26 season with a highly anticipated clash between Real Madrid and Osasuna at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Tuesday, August 19, 2025.
Real Madrid, coming off a mixed 2024/25 campaign that saw them fall short in both La Liga and the UEFA Champions League despite the arrival of Kylian Mbappé, are eager to start the new season on a strong note.
Osasuna, a resilient mid-table side, aim to challenge the giants in Madrid, hoping to capitalize on their solid home form from last season and their knack for causing upsets.
With both teams entering the match with fresh signings and renewed ambitions, this opening fixture promises to set the tone for the season ahead.
Prediction
Real Madrid are the clear favorites to win this encounter, with predictive models giving them a 69.7% chance of victory, compared to Osasuna’s 12.0% and an 18.2% chance of a draw.
The home side’s attacking firepower, led by stars like Mbappé, Vinicius Junior, and Jude Bellingham, is expected to overwhelm Osasuna’s defense. Despite their recent loss to PSG in the FIFA Club World Cup (4-0), Real Madrid’s form in the tournament showed resilience, with wins over Dortmund, Juventus, and Salzburg.
Osasuna, coming off a 1-1 draw against Alavés in their last competitive outing, have been inconsistent in pre-season friendlies, managing only one win in six matches.
Analysts predict a comfortable Real Madrid win, with a likely scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0, as Osasuna have struggled to score at the Bernabéu in recent years.
Head-to-head
Real Madrid have dominated their historical encounters with Osasuna, holding an unbeaten streak in their last 22 meetings across all competitions. In the last five matchups, Real Madrid secured four wins, with the most recent clash on February 15, 2025, ending in a 1-1 draw at Osasuna’s El Sadar.
Other recent results include a 4-0 Real Madrid victory at home on November 9, 2024, a 4-2 win away on March 16, 2024, and another 4-0 triumph at the Bernabéu on October 7, 2023.
Over these five games, Real Madrid scored 15 goals while Osasuna managed just four, highlighting the significant gap in attacking output. Osasuna’s last victory over Real Madrid dates back over 15 years, underscoring the challenge they face in this fixture.
Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings, and four of those games saw over 2.5 goals, suggesting potential for an open contest despite Real Madrid’s dominance.
Possible lineups
Real Madrid’s lineup is expected to feature their core stars, bolstered by new signings like Dean Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras, Franco Mastantuono, and Trent Alexander-Arnold, who joined in the summer transfer window.
With Luka Modrić having departed for AC Milan, the midfield will likely rely on Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, and Jude Bellingham, with Aurelien Tchouameni potentially slotting into defense due to injuries to Lucas Vazquez, Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rudiger, and David Alaba.
A possible Real Madrid lineup is: Courtois (GK), Alexander-Arnold, Tchouameni, Huijsen, Carreras, Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinicius Junior.
For Osasuna, Vicente Moreno is likely to field a strong side despite the absence of Raul Garcia due to an ankle injury and a potential suspension for Enzo Boyomo. Ante Budimir, who scored 12 goals in La Liga last season, will lead the attack.
A possible Osasuna lineup is: Herrera (GK), Areso, Herrando, Catena, Cruz, Moncayola, Torro, Oroz, Zaragoza, Ruben Garcia, Budimir.
Betting tips
The betting odds heavily favor Real Madrid, with a moneyline of -400 for a home win, +1100 for an Osasuna victory, and +500 for a draw.
For those looking to place bets, a Real Madrid win with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 1.76 offers value, given their historical dominance and Osasuna’s struggles at the Bernabéu.
The over 2.5 goals market is also appealing at -175, as Real Madrid’s attacking output often leads to high-scoring games against mid-table sides.
A safer bet might be Real Madrid to win with both teams not scoring, with a 58% probability of a clean sheet for the hosts, priced around 1.80. For riskier bets, a correct score of 3-0 to Real Madrid has a 14% probability and could yield higher returns.