The Premier League kicks off its 2025-26 season with a tantalizing clash at Elland Road, where Leeds United face Everton on Monday, August 18, 2025.
Leeds, fresh from a dominant Championship campaign that secured their return to the top flight, are eager to make a statement under manager Daniel Farke.
Everton, under the revitalized leadership of David Moyes, aim to build on a strong finish to the previous season. This opening fixture promises intensity, with both sides showcasing new signings and tactical shifts.
With Leeds’ raucous home support and Everton’s resilient away form, this match sets the stage for a gripping encounter.
Prediction
Leeds United enter this match as slight favorites, driven by their exceptional home form and attacking firepower displayed in the Championship. Their unbeaten pre-season, including victories over SC Verl (4-1) and SC Paderborn (3-2), underlines their offensive potential, led by Joël Piroe and Wilfried Gnonto.
Everton, however, are no pushovers, having ended the 2024-25 season with a respectable 8-7-4 record under Moyes. The Toffees’ defensive solidity, ranking fourth in expected goals against last season, suggests they can frustrate Leeds’ attack.
Despite this, Leeds’ home advantage and hunger to mark their Premier League return give them the edge.
Simulations project a 38.3% chance of a Leeds win, with a 2-1 scoreline favoring the hosts as a likely outcome, balancing Leeds’ attacking intent with Everton’s counter-attacking threat.
Head-to-head
Historically, Everton have had the upper hand in recent Premier League encounters, remaining unbeaten in their last five league meetings against Leeds.
In the 2022-23 season, Everton secured a 1-0 victory at Goodison Park, while the reverse fixture at Elland Road ended in a 1-1 draw. Over the last six Premier League matches, Everton have won three, with Leeds claiming one victory and two draws.
Notably, Leeds’ sole win in this period came in November 2020, a 1-0 triumph at Everton. The data reflects tight contests, with five of the last six matches featuring under 2.5 goals, suggesting a low-scoring affair may be on the cards.
Everton’s defensive resilience has often neutralized Leeds’ attacking flair, but the Whites’ bolstered squad could shift the dynamic this time.
Possible lineups
Leeds United are expected to field a strong side despite injury concerns, with five players doubtful but several returning to fitness. New signings Jaka Bijol, Sebastian Bornauw, and Gabriel Gudmundsson could bolster the defense, while Lukas Nmecha, signed from Wolfsburg, may partner Joël Piroe up front.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, a former Everton striker now at Leeds, might make an emotional debut against his old club, though his limited pre-season action could see Piroe lead the line.
A possible Leeds lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Bogle, Bijol, Rodon, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Gruev; Gnonto, Rutter, James; Piroe. Everton, meanwhile, welcome back James Tarkowski from a thigh injury, but Orel Mangala remains sidelined with a knee issue.
New signing Thierno Barry could debut alongside Carlos Alcaraz in midfield, with Jack Grealish potentially featuring despite fitness concerns. A possible Everton lineup (4-2-3-1): Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Alcaraz, Grealish, Ndiaye; Beto.
Betting tips
Leeds’ prolific home scoring record, netting 61 goals at Elland Road in the Championship last season, makes backing them to score over 1.5 goals a solid choice at odds of around 1.80.
Joël Piroe, with 19 goals last term, including 11 at home, is a strong candidate to score anytime, with odds around 2.50 offering value. The over 2.5 goals market is appealing at 2.10, given Leeds’ high-scoring home games and Everton’s counter-attacking potential through Barry and Alcaraz.
However, Everton’s defensive metrics and historical low-scoring encounters with Leeds make under 2.5 goals at 1.73 a viable alternative. A bet builder combining Leeds to win, over 1.5 Leeds goals, and both teams to score offers strong value at approximately 4.50, aligning with the expected match dynamics.
For a safer option, Leeds win or draw at 1.46 reflects their home strength and Everton’s inconsistent away form.