The FIFA Club World Cup quarter-final on July 5, 2025, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, pits Real Madrid against Borussia Dortmund in a rematch of the 2024 UEFA Champions League final. Real Madrid, fresh off a 1-0 victory over Juventus in the round of 16, are aiming to continue their pursuit of the revamped tournament’s title, while Dortmund, who edged out Monterrey 2-1, look to upset the European giants again.
This clash promises high intensity, with Real Madrid’s star-studded squad facing Dortmund’s dynamic attack. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance but also vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a thrilling encounter.
Prediction
Real Madrid are favored to advance, leveraging their depth and experience in high-stakes matches. The Spanish side topped Group H with a 3-0 win over RB Salzburg, showcasing their attacking prowess with contributions from Vinicius Junior and Gonzalo Garcia. Their 1-0 win over Juventus, despite a strong second half, highlighted their ability to grind out results under new manager Xabi Alonso.
Dortmund, however, are coming off a hard-fought 2-1 victory against Monterrey, driven by Serhou Guirassy’s first-half brace. Despite their offensive output, Dortmund’s defensive frailties were evident, as they allowed Monterrey multiple chances to equalize. Real Madrid’s recent dominance over Dortmund—winning 2-0 in the 2024 Champions League final and 5-2 in the 2024-25 league phase—gives them a psychological edge. With Kylian Mbappé back from illness and likely to start, Real Madrid’s attack could overwhelm Dortmund’s backline, which struggled against Monterrey’s pressure. Expect a close contest, but Real Madrid’s superior firepower and home-like atmosphere in the U.S. should see them through with a 2-1 victory.
Possible lineups
Real Madrid’s lineup is expected to feature Kylian Mbappé, who made his tournament debut as a substitute against Juventus. Xabi Alonso is likely to deploy a 3-4-3 formation, with Thibaut Courtois in goal and a backline of Lucas Vazquez, Eder Militao, and Antonio Rüdiger, as Dani Carvajal remains sidelined with a long-term injury. Ferland Mendy could start at left-back, replacing Fran Garcia for added defensive solidity. In midfield, Jude Bellingham, Federico Valverde, and Aurelien Tchouameni are expected to start, with Trent Alexander-Arnold potentially playing as a right wing-back after his assist against Juventus. Up top, Mbappé will likely join Vinicius Junior and Gonzalo Garcia, who has scored three goals in the tournament, though Rodrygo could replace Garcia if Alonso opts for his regular starters.
For Borussia Dortmund, manager Niko Kovac will miss Jobe Bellingham, suspended after a yellow card against Monterrey. Gregor Kobel is set to start in goal, with a backline of Julian Ryerson, Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Ramy Bensebaini. Emre Can and Marcel Sabitzer will anchor the midfield, while Donyell Malen, Julian Brandt, and Jamie Gittens are expected to support striker Serhou Guirassy, who has been in scintillating form. Injuries to Karim Adeyemi, Julien Duranville, and Giovanni Reyna limit Dortmund’s options, potentially forcing Kovac to rely on less experienced players like Yan Couto if needed.
Betting tips
Real Madrid are listed as favorites with odds of 1.55 for a win, while Dortmund are at 5.50, and a draw is priced at 4.20, per ESPN BET. Given both teams’ attacking capabilities and Dortmund’s defensive issues, betting on both teams to score is a solid choice at 1.65 odds. The over 2.5 goals market is also appealing at 1.50 odds, as Real Madrid’s matches have frequently been high-scoring, and Dortmund’s games in the tournament have seen goals flow freely. For a higher-risk option, consider over 3.5 goals at 2.20 odds, reflecting the potential for an open game.
Player-specific bets offer value: Vinicius Junior to score or assist is priced at 1.80, given his involvement in Real Madrid’s goals against Salzburg and his hat-trick against Dortmund in the Champions League. Serhou Guirassy, with six shots against Monterrey, is a strong pick for an anytime goalscorer bet at 2.50 odds. Additionally, Jude Bellingham to have 1+ shots on target at 1.70 odds is worth considering, given his history of contributing against his former club. With Real Madrid’s attacking depth and Dortmund’s resilience, expect a goal-heavy match with Los Blancos likely edging it.