The FIFA Club World Cup quarter-final clash between Palmeiras and Chelsea, set for July 5, 2025, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, promises to be a thrilling rematch of the 2022 final. Both teams advanced through grueling extra-time victories in the round of 16, with Palmeiras edging out Botafogo 1-0 and Chelsea overpowering Benfica 4-1.
The Brazilian side, led by coach Abel Ferreira, is known for its disciplined, defense-first approach, while Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea boasts technical superiority and attacking depth. With Palmeiras missing key defenders and Chelsea welcoming back striker Nicolas Jackson, this matchup is poised to be a tactical battle defined by fine margins.
Prediction
This encounter is likely to be a tight, low-scoring affair, with Chelsea holding a slight edge due to their superior squad depth and recent form. Palmeiras has been a defensive powerhouse, conceding only two goals in four matches during the tournament and keeping three clean sheets. Their compact shape and counter-attacking style, often led by the dynamic Estêvão Willian, make them a tough nut to crack.
However, Chelsea’s ability to control possession and create moments of individual brilliance, particularly through Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto, should see them through. The Blues struggled to break down Benfica in normal time but found their rhythm in extra time, suggesting they can unlock Palmeiras late in the game. Fatigue from both teams’ extra-time exertions in the previous round could play a role, but Chelsea’s deeper bench gives them an advantage. A 1-0 victory for Chelsea is the most likely outcome, with a set piece or a moment of quality deciding the contest.
Possible lineups
Palmeiras faces defensive challenges with captain Gustavo Gómez suspended, Joaquín Piquerez banned, and Murilo likely sidelined due to injury. Coach Abel Ferreira is expected to field a 4-3-3 formation with Weverton in goal, protected by a backline of Giay, Bruno Fuchs, Mike, and Vanderlan. The midfield trio of Emiliano Martínez, Richard Ríos, and Raphael Veiga will provide balance, with Veiga playing a creative role. Up front, Facundo Torres, Vitor Roque, and the highly-rated Estêvão Willian, who is set to join Chelsea after the tournament, will lead the attack. .Chelsea, without the suspended Moisés Caicedo, is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation. Robert Sánchez is expected to start in goal, with a defense of Reece James, Tosin Adarabioyo, Levi Colwill, and Marc Cucurella. Romeo Lavia and Enzo Fernández will anchor the midfield, supporting an attacking trio of Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, and Noni Madueke behind striker Liam Delap, with Nicolas Jackson potentially coming off the bench.
Betting tips
Given the defensive solidity of both teams, betting on under 2.5 goals offers strong value, as five of the eight combined games played by Palmeiras and Chelsea in the tournament have produced fewer than three goals. Chelsea’s odds to win at 2.00 reflect their favoritism, making them a solid pick for a narrow victory.
For a higher-value bet, Cole Palmer to score anytime at 3.75 is appealing, given his composure and creativity in tight spaces, as demonstrated against Benfica. A bet builder combining Chelsea to win, under 2.5 goals, and Palmer to score provides an attractive multiple for those seeking a bigger payout.