The UEFA Nations League semi-final clash between Spain and France on June 5, 2025, at the MHP Arena in Stuttgart promises to be a thrilling encounter between two European football powerhouses. Spain, riding a wave of attacking flair and youthful exuberance, face a resilient French side known for their defensive solidity and star-studded lineup.
With both teams showcasing contrasting styles—Spain’s fluid, possession-based approach against France’s pragmatic, counter-attacking game—this match is set to captivate fans.
Prediction
Spain enter this semi-final as slight favorites, largely due to their impressive form and cohesive play under coach Luis de la Fuente. La Roja have been unbeaten in their last 18 matches, with their most recent loss dating back to March 2024. Their attacking output, averaging over 1.5 goals per game in recent fixtures, is driven by a blend of young talents like Lamine Yamal and experienced heads like Álvaro Morata.
France, however, are no strangers to high-stakes matches, boasting a squad with big-game experience despite their inconsistent attacking form. Les Bleus have struggled to score from open play in recent tournaments, relying heavily on Kylian Mbappé, who is yet to fully ignite in this campaign due to injury concerns. Spain’s home advantage and 12-match winning streak at home give them an edge, but France’s defensive resilience, conceding just one goal in their last five matches, suggests a tight contest. A narrow 2-1 victory for Spain seems likely, with their attacking momentum potentially overwhelming France’s cautious approach.
Head-to-head
The rivalry between Spain and France is steeped in history, with 36 meetings since 1922. Spain hold a slight edge with 16 wins to France’s 13, alongside seven draws. Recent encounters have been closely contested. Spain secured a 2-0 victory in the Euro 2012 quarter-finals, while France edged out a 2-1 win in the 2021 UEFA Nations League final, with Mbappé scoring the decisive goal.
Other notable clashes include France’s 2-0 win in the Euro 1984 final and a 3-1 victory in the 2006 World Cup round of 16. The teams have met at every stage of major tournaments, making this semi-final the latest chapter in a storied rivalry. Spain’s recent dominance in head-to-head encounters, winning four of the last five, gives them psychological momentum, though France’s knack for performing in knockout stages cannot be underestimated.
Possible lineups
Spain are likely to field a strong side despite the absence of key midfielder Rodri, sidelined by injury, and Ferran Torres, also ruled out. Luis de la Fuente may opt for a 4-3-3 formation, with Unai Simón in goal, a backline of Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Robin Le Normand, and Marc Cucurella, and a midfield trio of Pedri, Fabián Ruiz, and Martín Zubimendi. Up front, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, and Nico Williams are expected to support captain Álvaro Morata.
France, meanwhile, face defensive injury concerns, with Jules Koundé, William Saliba, and Dayot Upamecano doubtful, potentially forcing Didier Deschamps to rely on Clément Lenglet and Lucas Hernández. In a 4-3-3 setup, Mike Maignan is set to start in goal, with a midfield of N’Golo Kanté, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Adrien Rabiot. The attack will likely feature Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram, and Kylian Mbappé, with young Lyon star Rayan Cherki pushing for a role. Both teams’ depth ensures quality, but Spain’s settled lineup may give them a slight advantage.
Betting tips
For bettors, the Spain vs France semi-final offers a range of exciting betting opportunities. Popular platforms like Betway, SportPesa, and 1xBet provide competitive odds, with Spain priced at approximately 2.38 to win, France at 2.80, and a draw at 3.10. Given Spain’s attacking form and France’s low-scoring games, betting on both teams to score (BTTS) at around 1.90 odds is a solid option, as both sides have the firepower to find the net. Another attractive bet is over 2.5 goals at 2.10, considering Spain’s recent goal-scoring run and France’s potential to counter through Mbappé.
For player-specific bets, Lamine Yamal to have over 2.5 shots at 2.00 odds is appealing, given his recent form of at least four shots in his last seven club matches. Additionally, a speculative bet on Dani Olmo to score or assist at 2.50 odds could pay off, as he averages a goal contribution every 66 minutes. Kenyan punters should also consider France’s goalkeeper Mike Maignan to make 3+ saves at 1.80 odds, as Spain’s high shot volume (averaging 19.1 attempts per game) often forces goalkeepers into action.