On May 12, 2025, Venezia welcomes Fiorentina to the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo for a crucial Serie A clash in match week 36. Venezia, languishing in 19th place with 26 points, are fighting tooth and nail to avoid relegation, needing victories in their final three games to have any hope of survival. Fiorentina, sitting in ninth, are chasing a direct European qualification spot but have hit a rough patch, winless in their last three matches across all competitions. With both teams desperate for points, this encounter promises to be a tense, tactical battle. Historical data and recent form suggest a low-scoring affair, but Venezia’s home advantage and Fiorentina’s attacking quality could make for an intriguing contest.
Prediction
Fiorentina are favored to edge out Venezia, likely securing a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 victory. Despite their recent struggles, including a 1-0 loss to Roma and a 2-2 draw in the UEFA Conference League semifinals, Fiorentina boast a stronger squad with players like David de Gea and Albert Gudmundsson capable of turning the game. Venezia have shown resilience, losing just one of their last five league games, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third—failing to score in nine of 17 home matches this season—could prove costly. Fiorentina’s superior goal-scoring record (53 goals compared to Venezia’s 29) and defensive solidity give them the upper hand, though Venezia’s defensive improvements under Eusebio Di Francesco might keep the scoreline tight. Expect a cautious game where Fiorentina’s experience prevails.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina is closely contested, with recent meetings often producing low-scoring results. Over the last 12 encounters, both teams have won five times, with two draws. Notably, the last six league meetings have all featured under 2.5 goals, reflecting the defensive nature of these clashes. Venezia have a strong historical home record against Fiorentina, winning four of their last five home games, with a goal difference of 9-4. However, Fiorentina’s 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture this season—a goalless draw until a late strike—shows their ability to grind out results. During the last five home games for Venezia, they’ve won four, but Fiorentina’s lone victory came in 2021. The overall goal difference across these 12 matches slightly favors Fiorentina at 16-13, suggesting neither side dominates convincingly.
Possible lineups
Venezia are likely to line up in their preferred 3-5-2 formation, despite injury concerns. With Michael Svoboda sidelined, Alfred Duncan and Richie Sagrado unavailable, and Kike Pérez racing to recover from a head injury, manager Eusebio Di Francesco may rely on Ionut Radu in goal, protected by a back three of Joel Schingtienne, Jay Idzes, and Fali Cande. The midfield could feature Alessio Zerbin, Gianluca Busio, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Magnus Kofod Andersen, and Ridgeciano Haps, with John Yeboah and Chris Gytkjaer leading the attack. Fiorentina, missing key players Moise Kean and Danilo Cataldi due to injury and Nicolo Zaniolo due to suspension, are expected to deploy a 3-5-2 under Raffaele Palladino. David de Gea will start in goal, with a defensive trio of Marin Pongracic, Pietro Comuzzo, and Luca Ranieri. The midfield may include Dodo, Yacine Adli, Jonathan Ndour, Rolando Mandragora, and Robin Gosens, supporting forwards Albert Gudmundsson and Lucas Beltran.
Betting tips
Bettors should approach this match with caution, as both teams are likely to prioritize defensive stability. A strong betting option is Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.69, given the low-scoring trend in recent head-to-heads and Venezia’s struggles to score at home. Fiorentina to Win & Under 3.5 Goals is another smart pick, reflecting their likelihood of a narrow victory in a controlled game. For those seeking value, Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No at around 1.80 could be appealing, as Venezia’s scoring woes and Fiorentina’s solid defense (conceding only 34 goals in 34 games) suggest at least one side may draw a blank. Finally, a Correct Score bet on Fiorentina winning 1-0 or 2-1 offers decent returns, aligning with predictions of a tight contest. Always check lineups an hour before kickoff, as injuries could shift the dynamics.