As the Premier League season nears its climax, Southampton host Manchester City on May 10, 2025, at St. Mary’s Stadium in a match that carries significant implications for both sides. Southampton, languishing at the bottom of the table, are desperate to avoid relegation and break an unwanted record of futility, while Manchester City aim to solidify their position in the race for a top-two finish. With the Citizens’ potent attack led by Omar Marmoush and Southampton’s vulnerable defense, this clash promises to be a compelling encounter.
Prediction
Manchester City are overwhelming favorites to win this match, given their superior form, squad depth, and historical dominance over Southampton. The Citizens have been relentless in their pursuit of the Premier League title, boasting a strong away record with 1.47 points per game on the road this season. Their recent 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers showcased their ability to grind out results even when their attack is not firing on all cylinders.
Southampton, on the other hand, have been dismal, with just one point from their last five matches and a meager 0.29 points per game at home. Despite a spirited 3-0 FA Cup win over Swansea City, their Premier League form remains dire, with 16 defeats in 20 matches. Expect Manchester City to control possession and exploit Southampton’s defensive frailties, likely securing a comfortable victory, possibly by a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline.
Head-to-head
The historical record heavily favors Manchester City in this fixture. In their last 26 meetings across all competitions, City have won 18 times, while Southampton have managed just four victories, with four draws. The most recent encounter in October 2024 saw Manchester City triumph 1-0 at the Etihad Stadium, a tightly contested match decided by a single goal.
When the teams last met at St. Mary’s in April 2023, City cruised to a 4-1 victory, with Erling Haaland scoring twice. Southampton’s last win over City came in July 2020, a 1-0 upset at home, but such results are rare. Over the years, matches between these two sides have averaged 3.31 goals, with both teams scoring in 62% of their encounters, suggesting a high likelihood of goals in this upcoming clash. City’s dominance is further underscored by their 80-43 goal difference across 41 total meetings.
Possible lineups
Southampton, under interim boss Simon Rusk, are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, aiming to balance defensive solidity with attacking intent. Aaron Ramsdale is set to start in goal, backed by a defensive trio of Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jan Bednarek, and Jack Stephens. Kyle Walker-Peters and Ryan Manning are likely to operate as wing-backs, providing width and defensive cover. In midfield, Flynn Downes and Lesley Ugochukwu will aim to disrupt City’s rhythm, while Mateus Fernandes and Tyler Dibling could play in advanced roles behind striker Ross Stewart. Substitutes like Cameron Archer and Paul Onuachu offer attacking options off the bench.
Manchester City, managed by Pep Guardiola, are likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation despite injury concerns. Ederson is expected in goal, with a backline of Rico Lewis, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, and Nathan Ake, though Ake’s fitness is uncertain. Mateo Kovacic and Ilkay Gundogan will anchor the midfield, allowing attacking quartet Savinho, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, and Jeremy Doku to support Erling Haaland up top. Kevin De Bruyne, potentially playing as a false nine, could replace Haaland if the Norwegian is rested, with young Nico O’Reilly also in contention for minutes. Long-term absentees Rodri and John Stones remain sidelined.
Betting tips
Given the stark contrast in form and quality, betting on a Manchester City victory is the safest option, with odds around 1.16 for an away win reflecting their dominance. For better value, consider the “Both Teams to Score – Yes” market at approximately 1.80, as Southampton have scored in five of their last six league games, and City’s defense has not kept a clean sheet in their last seven Premier League matches. Another tempting bet is Erling Haaland to score anytime, with odds around 1.60, given his prolific record against Southampton and return.
For those seeking higher returns, a Manchester City win with under 3.5 total goals at around 2.50 could be worth a punt, considering City’s recent low-scoring away performances. Finally, a correct score bet on 2-1 to Manchester City at 8.50 offers a balance of risk and reward, aligning with their tendency to win narrowly on the road.