Manchester United face Athletic Bilbao in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League semi-final at Old Trafford on Thursday, May 8, 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 PM GMT. The Red Devils hold a commanding 3-0 lead from the first leg, a stunning victory at San Mames that has put them on the brink of reaching the Europa League final. For United, this competition represents their only realistic chance of silverware and a route back to the UEFA Champions League next season, given their dismal 15th-place standing in the Premier League. Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, face a monumental task to overturn the deficit. The Basque side, who are fourth in La Liga and chasing a Champions League spot, had hoped to reach the final hosted at their home stadium. With both teams navigating contrasting domestic campaigns, this match promises high stakes and intense drama as United aim to seal their place in the final and Bilbao fight for a miracle.
Prediction
Manchester United are heavy favorites to progress, given their first-leg advantage and unbeaten record in the Europa League this season, with eight wins and five draws from 13 matches. The 3-0 win in Bilbao showcased their ability to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, with Bruno Fernandes scoring twice and Casemiro opening the tally. Despite their inconsistent Premier League form, United have shown resilience in Europe, exemplified by their dramatic 5-4 aggregate comeback against Lyon in the quarter-finals.
Athletic Bilbao, while formidable at home with six Europa League wins from six at San Mames, have struggled to replicate that form on the road. Their 2-0 aggregate win over Rangers in the quarter-finals relied heavily on home strength, and a 3-0 deficit against a United side desperate to salvage their season feels insurmountable. Bilbao’s hopes hinge on an early goal to spark a comeback, but United’s defensive setup under Ruben Amorim, combined with their attacking threat, should see them hold firm. A low-scoring draw or narrow United win is likely, with the hosts advancing comfortably to the final.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record between Manchester United and Athletic Bilbao is closely contested, with five previous competitive meetings. Bilbao hold a slight edge, winning three of those encounters, while United have two victories. Their most recent clash, the first leg on May 1, 2025, saw United triumph 3-0, their first win against Bilbao since the 1956/57 European Cup, where they won 6-5 on aggregate.
In their last Europa League meeting during the 2011/12 season, Bilbao dominated the round of 16, winning 5-3 on aggregate, including a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford. Earlier, in the 1956/57 European Cup, United’s 3-0 second-leg win secured the tie. A friendly in Dublin in 2023 ended in a 1-1 draw, with Nico Williams scoring for Bilbao and Facundo Pellistri equalizing late for United. This history suggests tight, competitive matches, but United’s recent dominance in the first leg shifts the momentum firmly in their favor.
Possible lineups
Manchester United are expected to field a strong side, though manager Ruben Amorim may rotate slightly following a 4-2 Premier League loss to Brentford. Andre Onana is set to start in goal, with a back three of Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, and Victor Lindelof. Noussair Mazraoui and Patrick Dorgu are likely to operate as wing-backs, with Casemiro and Manuel Ugarte anchoring the midfield. Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho will support striker Rasmus Hojlund, who continues to search for consistency. Injuries rule out Diogo Dalot, Joshua Zirkzee, Lisandro Martinez, and Ayden Heaven, but Matthijs de Ligt and Amad Diallo could feature after recent returns.
For Athletic Bilbao, Ernesto Valverde faces a defensive crisis with Dani Vivian suspended after a red card in the first leg and Oihan Sancet potentially sidelined by injury. Julen Agirrezabala will start in goal, with Oscar de Marcos, Aitor Paredes, Yeray Alvarez, and Yuri Berchiche forming the backline. Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta and Mikel Jauregizar are expected in midfield, with Inaki Williams, Alex Berenguer, and Nico Williams supporting striker Gorka Guruzeta. Bilbao’s lineup will aim for attacking intent, but their depleted defense may struggle against United’s pace.
Betting tips
With Manchester United holding a 3-0 lead, bookmakers see them as strong favorites to win the second leg at even-money odds (1/1) with BoyleSports, while Athletic Bilbao are priced at 9/4 to win inside 90 minutes, and a draw is at 5/2. Given United’s unbeaten Europa League run and Bilbao’s need to chase the game, betting on both teams to score (BTTS) offers value at 4/5 with Bet365, as United have conceded in all their Europa League home games under Amorim, and Bilbao’s attacking trio of the Williams brothers and Guruzeta are likely to create chances.
Bruno Fernandes, with two goals in the first leg and a record of scoring or assisting in four of United’s six Europa League home games, is a solid pick to score or assist at 19/20 with William Hill. For a riskier bet, under 3 goals in the match at 11/10 with BetMGM aligns with the expectation of a cautious United performance and Bilbao’s slim chances of a high-scoring comeback. Punters should approach with caution, as United’s defensive vulnerabilities and Bilbao’s desperation could lead to an open game, but the Red Devils’ lead makes a controlled, low-scoring affair more probable.