As Serie A heads into its 36th matchweek, all eyes turn to the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, where Atalanta BC hosts AS Roma on Monday, May 12, 2025, at 18:45 UTC. This clash carries immense weight for both sides, with Atalanta aiming to secure a top-four finish and Champions League qualification, while Roma fight to climb into the European places. Atalanta’s scintillating form contrasts with Roma’s gritty resilience, setting the stage for a high-stakes encounter. With both teams coming off contrasting European campaigns—Atalanta reaching the Europa League final and Roma falling short—this match promises intensity, tactical battles, and goals.
Prediction
Atalanta enter this fixture as favorites, buoyed by their formidable home form and attacking prowess. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men have been a force, averaging 1.96 goals per match this season and boasting a five-point cushion over Roma in the race for fourth place. Their recent 4-0 thrashing of Monza showcased their clinical edge, with Charles De Ketelaere and Ademola Lookman leading the charge. Roma, under Claudio Ranieri, have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their unbeaten run of seven away matches, but their inconsistency—evidenced by five draws in that stretch—could prove costly. The Giallorossi’s defensive solidity, with five clean sheets in six recent away games, will be tested by Atalanta’s relentless press. Given Atalanta’s dominance in recent head-to-heads and Roma’s low-scoring trend, a 2-0 victory for the hosts seems plausible, with La Dea capitalizing on their home advantage and Roma struggling to convert chances.
Head-to-head
The rivalry between Atalanta and Roma has been fiercely contested, with 46 meetings yielding 16 wins for Atalanta, 20 for Roma, and 10 draws. In recent years, Atalanta have had the upper hand, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters, including four victories and one draw. Their most recent clash on December 2, 2024, saw Atalanta triumph 2-0 at the Stadio Olimpico, with goals from Mateo Retegui and Ademola Lookman. At the Gewiss Stadium, Atalanta have won three of their last four home games against Roma, often exploiting their high-pressing style to disrupt Roma’s rhythm. Historically, matches at this venue average 3.13 goals, with both teams scoring in 69% of their last 32 meetings, suggesting a potential for goals despite Roma’s recent defensive resilience.
Possible lineups
Atalanta’s injury list poses challenges, with Ademola Lookman (Achilles), Stefan Posch, Giorgio Scalvini, Gianluca Scamacca, Juan Cuadrado, and Sead Kolasinac sidelined, and Isak Hien suspended. Gian Piero Gasperini is likely to deploy a 3-4-3 formation, with Marco Carnesecchi in goal, a back three of Odilon Kossounou, Berat Djimsiti, and Marten de Roon, and wing-backs Raoul Bellanova and Davide Zappacosta. Ederson and Mario Pasalic will anchor midfield, supporting Charles De Ketelaere, Marco Brescianini, and top scorer Mateo Retegui (24 goals) up top. Roma, missing Mario Hermoso due to injury, are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 under Ranieri. Mile Svilar will guard the net, protected by Zeki Celik, Gianluca Mancini, and Evan Ndicka. Matias Soule, Bryan Cristante, Manu Kone, Niccolo Pisilli, and Angelino will form a robust midfield, with Artem Dovbyk and Eldor Shomurodov leading the attack. Paulo Dybala, if fit, could replace Pisilli for added creativity.
Betting tips
For bettors, Atalanta’s form makes them a strong pick on the Asian Handicap at -0.25, with odds around -105, offering a half-stake refund if the match ends level. Their record of covering the -0.25 line in seven consecutive games underscores this value. Given Roma’s trend of low-scoring games—fewer than three goals in their last eight league matches—backing under 2.5 goals at odds of approximately 1.80 is appealing. Charles De Ketelaere, fresh off a brace against Monza, is a solid choice to score anytime at 2.50, especially after netting twice against Roma last season. For a riskier punt, a 2-0 correct score bet for Atalanta offers attractive odds around 8.00, reflecting their defensive solidity and home scoring record. Both teams to score (BTTS) at 1.61 is tempting, given the 69% BTTS rate in their head-to-heads, but Roma’s recent clean sheets tilt the scales toward Atalanta keeping a shutout.